Nolan Arenado Should Have Retired

(Update on Jan. 13, the St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks completed a deal sending Nolan Arenado to the D'backs, along with $30 million in return for righthander Jack Martinez. A 2025 8th round selection who checked in with a 5.94 ERA at Arizona State University. Mr. Martinez has yet to play in a professional baseball game.)

In the summer of 2025, St. Louis Cardinal third baseman Nolan Arenado had a choice.

The future Hall of Famer could have ended his career gracefully, as Mark McGwire did, but decided to take the path of many fading stars that ultimately leads to embarrassment and damaged statistics that accompany the diminished skills of a once-great ballplayer.

The similarities between McGwire and Arenado are interesting.

McGwire retired on November 11, 2001. It was a surprise move that resulted in him walking away from a two-year contract extension that would have paid him $30 million.

An Arenado retirement would have been equally surprising. He’d be walking away from $42 million over the final two years of his contract.

Big Mac was coming off a season in which he had hit .187 with an OPS+ of 105.

Arenado’s 2025 campaign shows him batting .237 with an 87 OPS+.

It was McGwire’s worst batting average in his 16-year career and worst OPS+ in 11 seasons.

Arenado’s batting average is the worst of his 13-year career. His OPS+ is the third-worst.

McGwire was limited to 97 games because of a bad right knee.  

Arenado has been limited to 107 games this season due to some minor tweaks.

McGwire returns to the dugout after being called back for a pinch-hitter.

In the 2001 National League Division Series against Arizona, McGwire suffered the indignity of being pinch hit for in the top of the ninth inning, with the tying run on first, in the winner-take-all fifth game of the series.

It was a tough decision for Manager Tony La Russa, who was a staunch supporter of McGwire, a decision that he certainly would not have made in any other season Mac had in St. Louis.

Similarly, the Cardinal organization made a tough decision during the 2024 offseason that they would not have made in other offseasons: to trade Nolan Arenado. As the team began moving on from its core players, of which Arenado i=was a part.

McGwire’s pinch-hitter was Kerry Robinson. Robinson sported an 85 OPS+ that season.

Arenado’s replacement, had he been traded, would have been Nolan Gorman. Gorman compiled 88 OPS+ this season.

When McGwire walked back to the dugout for Robinson to hit, it was the last time he was seen wearing the Cardinal uniform as a player.

When Arenado went on the IL Aug. 1, it should have been the last time he was seen wearing the Cardinal uniform as a player.

Arenado's defense has also fallen. In 2019, he had a +21 OAA, which placed him in the 100th percentile. He has slipped each year since, landing with a +3 OAA for this past season which placed him in the 81st percentile.

He rejected the one trade, to Houston, that former President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak was able to negotiate during the 2024-25 off-season.

A sure-fire Hall of Fame player with vastly reduced skills nets an 8th round pitcher from the most recent draft as long as the Cardinals were willing to play $30M. Is that the going rate? Or did the Cardinals get fleeced?

Cardinal Jack Martinez pitching for the University of Louisiana in 2024 is the haul POBO Chaim Bloom was able to net from Arizona for Nolan Arendo.

Getting Arenado's approval to be traded is one thing. The money he’d leave behind if he bowed out gracefully by retiring is another.

Given inflation, Arenado would not be walking away from $12 million more than McGwire did in 2001 (the difference of $42 million and $30 million, left on their contracts, respectively); it would be approximately $6-7 million more.

However, Arenado won’t be begging for meal money anytime soon. At the end of this season, he earned $226,512,500.

Leaving one question for him to ponder: at what price dignity?

Nolan Arenado has won 10 Gold Gloves and six Platinum Gloves while playing with Colorado and St. Louis. Back from the IL in September, he played in 11 games, 40 at-bats, hitting .250 with a 95OPS+.

On August 5, 2025 I posed the Arenado retiring idea to Daniel Guerrero, Cardinals beat writer for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Chuck Long Island: Hi Daniel, what do you think of the idea that Arenado should retire in the manner McGwire did, walking away from millions, rather than finish his career a shell of himself, like Steve Carlton did. Thanks!

Guerrero: Walking away early doesn't sound very fitting of who Arenado has shown to be. I don't imagine there being some scenario where he would walk away early. That just doesn't seem like him. Also, I think ending a career on a strong note is less common than we think. You look around in recent years and Hall of Famers like Ichiro, Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. all had some struggles in their final seasons before retiring. I don't think Arenado would walk away early to avoid being a shell of himself.

Daniel Guerrero

Kerry Robinson Pinch Hits For Mark McGwire

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Charles I. Guarria is an author, reporter and host based in the state of Florida, USA, covering any topic, anywhere in the world. His career began in 2009. Mr. Guarria is a three-time winner of Emerald Group Publishing’s Highly Commended Award and host of The Opinion Guy Fun Friendly Informative. He is available for hire to write, research, or beta-read.

Photo Cred: AP Michael Wyke, Isaiah J. Downing, Kerry Robinson YouTube, Sports Illustrated,

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