Nolan Arenado Should Have Retired

Last summer, former St. Louis Cardinal third baseman Nolan Arenado had a choice when a right shoulder strain sent him to the injured list for seven weeks.

The future Hall of Famer could have ended his career gracefully, as Mark McGwire did, but decided to take the path of many fading stars that ultimately leads to embarrassment and damaged statistics that accompany the diminished skills of a once-great ballplayer.

The similarities between McGwire and Arenado are interesting.

McGwire retired on November 11, 2001. It was a surprise move that resulted in him walking away from a two-year contract extension that would have paid him $30 million.

An Arenado retirement in 2025 would have been equally surprising. He’d be walking away from $42 million over the final two years of his contract.

Big Mac was coming off a season in which he had hit .187 with an OPS+ of 105.

Arenado’s 2025 campaign shows him batting .237 with an 87 OPS+.

It was McGwire’s worst batting average in his 16-year career and worst OPS+ in 11 seasons.

Arenado’s 2025 batting average was the worst of his 14-year career. His OPS+ was the third-worst.

After an off-season trade to Arizona and a decent start to the 2026 season, Arenado is back to the 2025 stat line with a .238 batting average and a 96 OPS+.

There are more similarities between Big Mac's final season and what should have been Arenado's in 2025.

McGwire was limited to 97 games because of a bad right knee.

Arenado was limited to 107 games in 2025 due to the shoulder strain and some minor tweaks.

This season, in the desert, he has played in 72 of Arizona's 80 games. Bravo!

But at the age of 35, I wouldn't bet he keeps up this pace, ending with 145 games played. Not that I am rooting against him, just being realistic.

McGwire returns to the dugout after being called back for a pinch-hitter.

In the 2001 National League Division Series against Arizona, McGwire suffered the indignity of being pinch hit for in the top of the ninth inning, with the tying run on first, in the winner-take-all fifth game of the series.

It was a tough decision for Manager Tony La Russa, who was a staunch supporter of McGwire, a decision that he certainly would not have made in any other season Mac had in St. Louis.

Similarly, the Cardinal organization made a tough decision during the 2024 offseason that they would not have made in other offseasons: to trade Nolan Arenado. The team was moving on from its core players, of which Arenado was a part. However, he nixed a deal to Houston. A power he had given his contract's no-trade clause.

McGwire’s pinch-hitter was Kerry Robinson. Robinson sported an 85 OPS+ that season as he stepped in for Mac.

Arenado’s replacement, had he been traded, would have been Nolan Gorman. Gorman compiled 88 OPS+ in 2025 and is back in minor league ball, reworking his swing.

It isn't just an offense collapse for Arenado. His defense has fallen off as well.

In 2019, he had a +21 OAA, which placed him in the 100th percentile. He has slipped each year since, currently with a +2 OAA, which places him in the 83rd percentile, and his arm strength is in the 41st percentile. Both would be career lows, per Baseball Savant.

A sure-fire Hall of Fame player with vastly reduced skills netted St. Louis an 8th-round 2025 Arizona draft pick with a 97 MPH fastball, righty Jack Martinez. The Cardinals also sent the Diamonbacks $30M.

Martinez is in his first pro season playing with the Cardinals' low-A Palm Beach affiliate. He has spun his fastball, changeup, curve and slider into a 3.93 ERA over 13 starts, 50.1 innings, 69 K's and a 1.192 WHIP.

Recently, Arenado admitted the end of his career is in sight, "Right now, I could see myself retiring, to be honest with you,” he said to reporters.

I saw it last year, as did many others, I am sure. With one year left on his contract, my expectation is that he is back next season. No reason to retire with a year to go. The time to hang it up was last summer. With a year to go, he might as well play out the contract and damage his stats some more.

Nolan Arenado has won 10 Gold Gloves and six Platinum Gloves while playing with Colorado and St. Louis.

On August 5, 2025, I posed the Arenado retiring idea to Daniel Guerrero, Cardinals beat writer for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Chuck Long Island: Hi Daniel, what do you think of the idea that Arenado should retire in the manner McGwire did, walking away from millions, rather than finish his career a shell of himself, like Steve Carlton did. Thanks!

Guerrero: Walking away early doesn't sound very fitting of who Arenado has shown to be. I don't imagine there being some scenario where he would walk away early. That just doesn't seem like him. Also, I think ending a career on a strong note is less common than we think. You look around in recent years and Hall of Famers like Ichiro, Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. all had some struggles in their final seasons before retiring. I don't think Arenado would walk away early to avoid being a shell of himself.

Daniel Guerrero

Kerry Robinson Pinch Hits For Mark McGwire

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Charles I. Guarria is an author, reporter and host based in the state of Florida, USA, covering any topic, anywhere in the world. His career began in 2009. Mr. Guarria is a three-time winner of Emerald Group Publishing’s Highly Commended Award and host of The Opinion Guy Fun Friendly Informative. He is available for hire to write, research, or beta-read.

Photo Cred: AP Michael Wyke, Isaiah J. Downing, Kerry Robinson YouTube, Sports Illustrated,

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